This is obviously already a low total at 42.5 at just over 6 touch downs, but I think we still have some value here when you look at the strengths of each teams which is their defenses. I actually would lean towards South Carolina on the side, I don't think there is much difference between these two schools, but I just can't get too pumped about the hiring of Will Muschamp or backing a team coached by him.
South Carolina was 120th in pace last year averaging just 66 plays per game, and I don't expect much to change when they break in 7 first time offensive starters. This offense is having to replace 3 starters on the offensive line and they are going up against Vanderbilt, a team whose defense returns 83% of their production. A team defense that's good enough to win the SEC East. Vanderbilt held conference opponents to 33% TD percentage in the red zone. They also held conference opponents to 25% third down conversions. I think this is a struggle for South Carolina, and I don't think they will try to do too much here on offense.
Vanderbilt on the other hand also has a poor offense that is unlikely to improve with just 59% of their production returning. This offense was 25th in time of possession, so expect them to run the ball (56% of the time), which falls into the strength of South Carolina's front 7. The front 7 of South Carolina should be much improved and they have attacking linebackers that should set up Vanderbilt in third and long. Vanderbilt has to replace two starters on the offensive line and while that does not sound like much they replace a total of 75 starts from Pulley and Bernstein. Not exciting news for a team that was 102nd in yards per carry a season ago. I think this is poised to be a very boring low scoring game and South Carolina could be in position to pull the upset.
